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Casting Aluminum Alloy Hits Record High
2026-01-20
I. Domestic Recycled Aluminum Alloy Market Analysis
Recycled Aluminum Alloy Market Conditions
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During the period, the price of A00 aluminum ingot first rose and then fell, peaking at ¥24,690/ton. As of January 15, the spot price of A00 aluminum on the Fubao platform ranged between ¥24,170–24,210/ton, averaging ¥24,190/ton, up ¥190/ton from January 8. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot was ¥23,300/ton, up ¥200/ton from January 8.
Currently, the mainstream price of non-deliverable ADC12 ingots in East China ranges between ¥23,200–23,500/ton, up ¥200/ton from January 8. In South China, ADC12 prices are between ¥23,200–23,400/ton, up ¥300/ton. In Southwest China, ADC12 prices are between ¥23,300–23,500/ton, up ¥400/ton. Deliverable-grade products typically command a premium of ¥100–200/ton.
During this period, casting aluminum alloy ingot prices saw frequent adjustments, with some regions experiencing multiple price changes in a single day, leading to market confusion and widened quotation ranges. Inquiries remained active, but traders were cautious in procurement. Some year-end sellers liquidated inventories more aggressively than buyers. Additionally, prices reached record highs, coupled with high volatility, leading downstream die-casting firms to adopt a cautious stance amid weak demand. Overall, actual market transactions were lukewarm.
Scrap Aluminum Raw Material Market Conditions
Scrap aluminum prices varied across regions this period, with significant intra-regional price differences and frequent adjustments causing market disorder. Segment-specific conditions are as follows:
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Bright aluminum wire: As of January 15, mainstream regional prices were concentrated at ¥20,000–20,600/ton, showing steady-to-higher prices compared with January 8, with gains ranging from ¥0–200/ton. Amid A00 aluminum ingot trading between ¥24,000–24,690/ton, bright aluminum wire prices became erratic, with discounts in East China shrinking significantly to 84–86% of the base price, widening the refined-scrap spread slightly to ¥2,469/ton. Meanwhile, in South China, bright wire prices adjusted with spot aluminum, narrowing the spread to ¥2,218.8/ton.
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Beverage cans (UBCs): As of January 15, mainstream regional prices were between ¥16,900–17,500/ton, steady-to-higher versus January 8, mostly up ¥0–100/ton. Price adjustments were frequent amid high volatility, with clear inter- and intra-regional discrepancies in procurement attitudes and adjustment ranges. Overall, UBC prices saw marginal gains compared with the prior period. Cold weather reduced recycling volumes, keeping market supply tight.
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Piston aluminum (turnings): As of January 15, mainstream regional prices were between ¥17,000–18,300/ton, showing mixed trends versus January 8, with fluctuations mostly within ¥-200–300/ton. Prices were highly fragmented, with some areas suppressing procurement costs due to rising tax burdens, leading to selective declines. Some firms with strong profitability adjusted prices actively in line with casting alloy trends. While higher-grade supply was relatively ample, unstable market conditions and weak orders prompted many producers to control inventory levels. Next week's scrap aluminum price fluctuations may ease, with limited shifts in the overall price center.
II. ADC12 Cost & Profit Analysis
Domestic ADC12 Cost Breakdown
Primary aluminum spot prices rose and then retreated this period, with futures briefly surpassing ¥25,000/ton, while casting aluminum alloy prices also hit historic highs, stabilizing above ¥23,000/ton. However, regional raw material price trends diverged sharply. In some tax-favored regions, uncertainties around reverse invoice policies and rebates (post-2026) prompted firms to suppress procurement costs. High-grade scrap supply remained loose, pulling furnace-feed costs down to ~91.55%. Meanwhile, copper's upward breakout raised copper-addition costs to ~2.5%.
ADC12 Production Costs in East & South China
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Per Fubao Nonferrous data, as of January 15, 2026, East China's ADC12 cost stood at ¥21,805.5/ton, down ¥101/ton from January 8, while South China's cost rose ¥233/ton to ¥22,556/ton. The interregional cost gap widened to ~¥751/ton.
Primary aluminum prices peaked and retreated mid-period, but spot aluminum still hit yearly highs. As prices hovered at elevated levels, downstream demand softened, echoing trends in the casting alloy market. Regional policies and raw material availability drove divergent scrap costs—unlike prior synchronized movements, the East/South China scrap cost gap neared ¥800/ton, doubling from the previous week. With casting alloy margins now historically high, the cost gap may persist.
Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot Profitability in China
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As of January 15, 2026, domestic casting alloy ingot profits rose ¥12/ton to ¥947/ton—a five-year high, with brief dips late-week leaving margins still healthy. Short-term price corrections may occur but with limited downside due to:
The AL-AD spread holding near ¥1,000/ton, approaching critical levels, with potential mean reversion amid slowing macro momentum.
Post-audit policy adjustments in key tax zones; alloy prices may stay resilient as firms preempt future regulatory harmonization.
III. Next-Week Recycled Aluminum Alloy Outlook
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Macro: Sentiment cooled slightly, with precious metals leading declines. Aluminum extended losses with amplified volatility. Internationally, Trump stated no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell; markets assessed his executive order on critical mineral imports; U.S. tariff policies on Iran-trading partners compounded uncertainties, pressuring fundamentals.
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Supply: Operations normal; social inventories continued accumulating. Demand: Downstream pressure intensified—buyers procured minimally, traders scaled back. Large processors sustained baseline demand (sheet/foil, industrial products), while other segments faced higher pressure. Aluminum prices retain near-term support; expect prices to fall first, then rise, maintaining wide high-range fluctuations (¥23,500–24,800/ton).
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Recycled Market: As of January 15, Fubao's ADC12 spot guidance was ¥23,300/ton, down ¥200/ton. Next week, casting alloy prices may consolidate at high levels (limited downside)—futures range ¥22,500–23,600/ton; spot range ¥22,800–23,400/ton.